The Apple Watch supports Apple Pay, but it’s unlikely that the smartwatch, coming April 24, will significantly boost the number of mobile payments made by U.S. customers.

“Apple Watch will mostly overlap with the same people” using Apple Pay on iPhones, said Leon Majors, senior vice president of Phoenix Marketing International, which offers research to financial institutions supporting various mobile payment systems.

“As unique new users, Apple Watch doesn’t add significantly to the use of Apple Pay,” Majors said in an interview on Wednesday.

Gartner analyst Avivah Litan agreed. “I don’t believe Apple Watch will change much. It will likely just add a 5% lift to the Apple Pay adoption numbers.”

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