Apple will introduce new iPads today in the hope they will rejuvenate sales, whose growth has slumped in the first two quarters of 2014.

But the expectation by analysts is that Apple won’t offer enough to convince current owners to ditch their aging, or even aged iPads, and that Apple must, like PC makers today, learn to live with a longer refresh cycle than it might have once anticipated.

“The big questions are two-fold. First, what are the upgrade cycles for people who are actively using their iPads?” said Jan Dawson, principal analyst of Jackdaw Research. “Second, how many people bought it, used it, but are no longer really using it? It’s sitting in a drawer or maybe used only infrequently. Those people are not going to replace them ever.”

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