The emergence of Apple Pay has led some technology early adopters to predict that mobile payments will dominate U.S. consumer spending in the next decade.

Yet the idea that most Americans will use a mobile wallet in 2025 is still a pipe dream, according to some expert analysis.

Forrester Research on Monday threw something of a wet blanket on mobile payment growth, calling it an “evolution — not a revolution,” in a blog.

In a separate report for its clients, Forrester said that the $142 billion predicted for mobile payment spending in 2019 will be “just a drop in the ocean of total U.S. consumer spending.” Forrester predicted that all forms of mobile spending — online, in-person and person-to-person — will total only 1% of the annual $16 trillion consumer payments in the U.S.

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