PC shipments will continue to contract during 2015, but it won’t be the fault of the Windows 10 free upgrade, research firm IDC said today.

“It’s all about how you look at it,” Loren Loverde, an analyst at IDC, said in an interview today. “The first half of this year is much more negative than the second half, and in 2016, things should stabilize more than in the past four years. So in a sense, Windows 10 is definitely contributing to the PC market.”

IDC’s latest forecast — the first since November — predicts a 6.2% downturn for the year, about three times that of 2014, for the fourth straight year of declines. OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) will ship 289 million personal computers this year, a drop of about 7 million from the prior projection.

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